Banwo Scores Tinubu 4/10 on Security in Three-and-a-Half-Year Scorecard
Dr Ope Banwo has scored President Bola Ahmed Tinubu four out of 10 on security, citing persistent kidnappings, fear among rural communities and declining public confidence in the country’s ability to protect lives and property.
Banwo gave the assessment in the second episode of his Jagaban Scorecard Series, a 12-part analysis of Tinubu’s performance across different sectors during his three-and-a-half years in office.
The political analyst examined the country’s security situation, raising questions about whether Nigerians were safer under the current administration and whether ordinary citizens could now go about their daily activities without fear.
He questioned the extent of progress in tackling insecurity, arguing that kidnapping had spread beyond areas previously regarded as major hotspots to several geopolitical zones.
According to him, health workers, traditional rulers, religious leaders, travellers, students, doctors, farmers and other members of the public have become targets of abductions.
He said the situation had affected agricultural activities, as farmers were increasingly afraid to visit their farms for fear of being kidnapped.
Banwo cited the experience of a friend who had operated large farms in northern Nigeria but was forced to relocate to Ogun State and start afresh because of insecurity. He added that even Ogun State, which was previously considered relatively safe, was no longer free from security concerns.
He argued that the inability of farmers to access their land without fear of attacks had economic consequences, particularly for food production and the livelihoods of rural communities.
On the government’s campaign against terrorism, Banwo questioned the manner in which military operations and their outcomes were communicated to the public.
He argued that Nigerians were often told that terrorist camps had been destroyed without sufficient public evidence of the outcome of such operations.
He also raised questions about conflicting accounts surrounding the rescue of abducted victims in Orire, Oyo State, where the military reportedly announced that the victims had been rescued, while members of their families claimed that ransom had been paid to secure their release.
Banwo questioned the disparity between the accounts, calling for greater clarity on the circumstances surrounding the operation.
Acknowledging that Tinubu inherited security challenges from previous administrations, Banwo said the problem was not peculiar to the current president, noting that former presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari also confronted different forms of insecurity during their tenures.
However, he argued that the existence of inherited challenges should not prevent the current administration from being assessed on the progress made in addressing them.
He also questioned why some supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) continued to give the government a positive assessment on security despite the restrictions and precautions many Nigerians still observe in their daily lives.
Banwo asked whether Nigerians who could not confidently leave their homes after 7pm, or APC supporters who required large security contingents to visit their communities, could reasonably describe the country as winning the war against insecurity.
He further questioned why road travellers continued to embark on journeys with fears about whether they would return safely.
According to him, the success of the government’s security campaign should not be measured only by military operations or official statements but also by the level of confidence ordinary Nigerians have in their safety.
He, however, cautioned against the suggestion that nothing had changed under Tinubu, arguing that government performance should be assessed on the basis of whether citizens feel sufficiently protected to live and work without constant fear.
Banwo also linked insecurity to the country’s economic performance, describing security as an economic policy issue rather than solely a military concern.
He said the prevailing security situation had affected investor confidence, particularly in agriculture, where the fear of attacks and abductions could discourage people from committing capital to farming and related businesses.
He argued that foreign investors paid attention to security reports and newspaper headlines when assessing investment destinations, adding that concerns about safety could influence investment decisions even before prospective investors examined the country’s tax laws and business regulations.
He also criticised those who claim that Nigeria had never been safer, urging them to consider the experiences of ordinary citizens before making such assertions.
According to him, the fear of abduction remains a major concern for investors considering agricultural projects, as attacks on farms could lead to the loss of workers, disruption of operations and financial setbacks.
He said the situation showed that the government still had considerable work to do to restore confidence in the security of lives, property and investments.
Despite the challenges, Banwo acknowledged that there were potential gains from the government’s efforts but maintained that the experiences of ordinary Nigerians remained a critical measure of progress.
He said many citizens still faced anxiety whenever relatives travelled by road, while farmers and other investors remained concerned about the possibility of attacks.
Banwo argued that agriculture, which has the potential to contribute significantly to Nigeria’s economy, could not reach its full capacity if farmers were unable to access their land safely.
Concluding his assessment, he said the country’s security situation would remain an unfulfilled promise until ordinary Nigerians, including market women and rural households, could sleep without fear and travel without turning every journey into a prayer session.
He specifically referred to everyday Nigerians such as Mama Ramota, Iya Sule, Mama Ngozi and Mama Deen, saying their ability to sleep peacefully and travel without fear should form part of any meaningful assessment of security performance.
At the end of the second episode, Banwo awarded Tinubu four marks out of 10 for his performance on security, bringing the assessment to a close.
